JAMES PETHOKOUKIS: Moore’s Law meet Musk’s Law: the underappreciated story of SpaceX and the stunning decline in launch costs.

Many reporters, as well as the general public, fail to grasp that SpaceX’s approach to rocket development differs fundamentally from NASA’s. Instead of extensive ground testing and a cautious pace to minimize launch failures — which can lead to longer development timelines and higher costs — SpaceX embraces rapid iteration and learning from failure. Elon Musk’s company views each launch, whether completely successful or not, as an opportunity to gather valuable data and improve future designs. Starship is no different. Its “failures” are stepping stones to success, at least so far.

That iterative approach, combined with their vertical integration and in-house manufacturing capabilities, allows SpaceX to move more quickly and cost-effectively than traditional aerospace players — with amazing results. . . .

Berger’s key phrase: “a world in which launch is cheap and abundant.” It’s worth spending a moment on the revolutionary decline in launch costs, the key enabler of the emerging new space age. As Citigroup outlined in a 2022 research note, NASA Launch costs dropped significantly from over $100,000/kg in the mid-1960s to around $5,400/kg for the Saturn V used in the Apollo launches starting in 1967. After the Apollo 11 lunar landing, the average launch cost remained relatively stable for decades, averaging about $16,000/kg for medium/heavy payloads and about $30,000/kg for light payloads. This was due to factors such as the use of existing launch systems, reduced number of launches, high reliability requirements for human spaceflight, and a government-funded spending culture. Bottom line: There simply wasn’t much innovation or financial motivation to be innovative.

Then came SpaceX, which pioneered lower launch costs with the Falcon 9 in 2010 ($2,500/kg) and Falcon Heavy in 2018 ($1,500/kg) that are 30 times lower than NASA’s Space Shuttle in 1981 and 11 times lower than the average launch costs from 1970 to 2010, according to Citi.

I discussed this change and its implications a few years back in my America’s New Destiny in Space.