AN UPTICK IN FREIGHT VOLUMES — FOR NOW.

But as much as I would wish otherwise, the caveats must be restated. First, October’s growth was heavily driven by exports from China. As we have previously noted, China halted or curbed exports at the beginning of October during the national celebration of Golden Week. Taking into account the lead times, transit times and potential delays at either the port of discharge or lading, this disruption will not hit U.S. shores until next week. So by all means, smoke ’em while you’ve got ’em, but the winter is about to hit truckload markets sooner rather than later.

Second, ocean carriers are bracing for unfavorable trade winds that are forecast to persist well into 2024 if not beyond. After a brutal third-quarter earnings miss, Hapag-Lloyd — the world’s fifth-largest ocean carrier — tightened its guidance for the remainder of the year. . . . This outlook is equally applicable to truckload markets, insofar as they are both fed by maritime imports and are also suffering from overcapacity driving down rates.

Hmm.