ELECTION: All Eyes on France. “All of the pre-election surveys show Macron with a comfortable 10-point lead over Le Pen, but if the election comes out this way it will be a major narrowing from the last election in 2017, which Macron won over Le Pen by a 66 – 33% margin. In other words, while 2017 was a landslide, this election shows the shift in momentum in French opinion. The media and the establishment are very nervous about the election tomorrow, despite Macron’s consistent lead in the polls. The media and the establishment are still suffering PTSD from Brexit and Trump. A Le Pen win can’t be ruled out. The biggest question mark is whether turnout by the young, which skewed sharply to Le Pen in the first round, will be higher than the survey models expect. The establishment is nearly hysterical in warnings about how Le Pen is a Putin puppet, and Macron has even been trying to learn rap music to relate to the youts of Paris.”

According to The Hill, “the U.S. establishment” is all-in for Macron, which is enough to make me think favorably of Le Pen at this juncture.