I BELIEVE THIS, BUT MAY IS A LONG TIME: Ukraine: If we hold out until May, the Russian army will collapse.

Related: NATO leaders heading to Kyiv as attacks intensify. The Europeans are showing so much sudden backbone it makes me wonder what I’m missing.

Plus: “Meanwhile, the unfolding events in Ukraine now have some analysts asking if we need to ‘rethink’ America’s role in Europe. Donald Trump set a new precedent during his tenure, calling on Europe to pay for more of its own defense needs and announcing plans to draw down the American military presence there. Joe Biden has reversed those plans already (as with virtually everything else Trump accomplished) but now we may be looking at a permanent American military presence in Europe not seen since the cold war.”

I would say the opposite — that Russia’s unimpressive performance against the poorest country in Europe suggests that NATO is entirely capable of containing the Russian threat with European resources.