BIDEN SAYS NO, BUT YES: It’s happening: Poland to send MiG-29 fighters to U.S. for Ukrainian transfer in return for F-16s; Update: U.S. rejects. “Poland isn’t transferring any jets to Ukraine. It’s transferring them to the United States, at one of its bases in Germany. The United States will then transfer the jets to the Ukrainians, who’ll presumably travel to Rammstein and fly the jets back to Ukraine themselves.”

Plus: “Relatedly, do we think the Poles ever would have agreed to this deal if the Russian military hadn’t underperformed over the past two weeks? I linked this Times story earlier about eastern European powers viewing Russia’s military power in a new light as the country continues to struggle in battle against Ukraine. Maybe the Poles have concluded that a very risky provocation like sending a fleet of fighter jets to a country under Russian invasion isn’t as risky as it was a week ago. If Russia can’t subdue the Ukrainians, how will it subdue the Ukrainians plus a NATO-backed Poland?”