DON’T GET COCKY: Howard Kurtz thinks that Republicans are getting overconfident. And Salon’s Farhad Manjoo — who’s been betting on Bush in the Iowa Electronic Markets — now thinks that Bush is overvalued there. (“I think the IEM is overvaluing Bush shares, maybe by a little and possibly by a lot. I’ve arranged my portfolio accordingly.”) Is this right? Beats me.

UPDATE: Reader Karl Bade emails: “Howard Kurtz is ostensibly a media critic. But today’s column reads like a memo to what the Note calls ‘the Gang of 500,’ the message of which is: it is crucial that the media’s post-debate spin favor Kerry.”

ANOTHER UPDATE: More on the futures market here, saying that Manjoo is right.