MICKEY KAUS has a number of interesting thoughts on the political situation in Iraq, which as I noted below is probably more uncertain than the military situation. Mickey thinks that delaying elections is a bad idea and that accelerating them may be a good idea.

There’s some support for this view in the Zarqawi memo, which subsequent events appear to suggest is genuine. Zarqawi expressed concern that a transition to Iraqi self-rule and democracy would doom the insurgency. And there’s also some evidence that the adoption of the Afghan constitution had a dampening effect on opposition there.

UPDATE: Interestingly, a reader emails that the BBC is reporting that Zarqawi is in Fallujah now. [LATER: Here’s a web report.]

ANOTHER UPDATE: Here’s a respectful Fisking of Kerry’s Washington Post oped, from someone whose website design is, um, a bit derivative.

Meanwhile Tacitus has some interesting observations on the difference between the political and the military where insurgencies are concerned. Conclusion: “This war will continue. Changing presidents won’t change that. It will be on your headlines and your television for years to come. The question before you as an American, then, is whether, how, and by whom you want it won. In that order.” Read the whole thing.

And Patrick Belton at OxBlog has more thoughts on the Kerry oped.

MORE: Roger Simon takes a charitable look at the Kerry op-ed.