NOAH SHACHTMAN WRITES about libertarians disenchanted with Bush. I think this is a real issue, though I note that in a way it’s mostly about the war: Shachtman quotes well-known antiwar libertarians like Jim Henley, Julian Sanchez, Gene Healy, Radley Balko, etc. That doesn’t make it less significant, politically, though.

How significant is it? I don’t know. Libertarians don’t control a lot of votes (and are deeply split on the war), but elections tend to be close these days. I think that Bush is far more vulnerable than most Republicans seem to think, and that Howard Dean might well be able to beat him, especially if he positions himself as reasonably pro-gun and doesn’t frighten people away by caving to too many Democratic special interests. Can Dean do that? Maybe. Democrats are desperate, as they were in 1992, and they will cut any candidate who looks like he can beat Bush a lot of slack. My prediction: a Dean/Edwards ticket.

UPDATE: Reader Chaim Karczag emails that only part of it is the war:

But it’s also about runaway domestic spending on social programs and a ballooning size of government. President Bush is spending like a drunken sailor and running huge deficits, while never once mentioning the need for fiscal prudence or that the government might be overextended. Compassionate conservatism is costing the country a fortune. Rolling back the frontiers of the state is simply not on the agenda. Dark days for those who harbor a libertarian impulse.

That’s right, and I wonder if the Shachtman article wasn’t Kuttnerized to emphasize the war (which Kuttner doesn’t like) and de-emphasize the big-government aspects (which Kuttner probably likes).

There’s an interesting structural issue here. I think that Republican Presidents have to overspend to protect their left flank (and they can get away with it because the press will let them — overspending is a Democratic stereotype, and the press mostly thinks in stereotypes). For the same reason, Democrats tend to be worse on civil liberties. So what do libertarians do?