STEPHEN MOORE warns that Howard Dean may be a bigger threat to Bush than most Republicans realize. I think he’s right.

I’ve said all along that Bush is vulnerable — and there’s new evidence that he’s losing his base.

UPDATE: Lileks thinks that this doesn’t matter:

I think that’s overrated, and also somewhat irrelevant; what are they going to do in 04, write in “Tom McClintock”? Yes, they could stay home, but I have a hard time imagining large numbers of GOPers thinking “I trust him more on national security than that Dean fellow, but I just can’t vote for a guy who co-authored an education bill with Ted Kennedy.”

The question is who has a better sense of the rationality of the Republican base. Stay tuned. Lileks also notes:

As for the Iraq situation? I’m stunned that a country whose face was held mouth-down in the mud for 30 years hasn’t spontaneously produced a civil society in six months. I don’t think they’ve even started thinking about a new national anthem. Let’s give it all to the French.

He’s obviously been reading Dowd again.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Jim Miller figures the odds on Bush’s reelection at about 60/40. Meanwhile John Edwards has declared for Vice President according to QandO. I actually think that Edwards’ prospects are better than most people are allowing for at the moment.