WHO IS SCARED OF HOWARD DEAN? A lot of people, all of a sudden, it seems. At least, I turned on the radio while driving around this afternoon, and heard Rush Limbaugh dumping heavily on Dean and saying that (1) Democrats are scared of Bush because his relatively big-government policies (which Limbaugh compared to Nixon’s) are stealing their issues; and (2) Dean’s too far to the left to win.
I’m not so sure. Bush’s comparatively liberal spending policies are alienating a nontrivial number of his supporters, but will they win Democratic votes? Bush talks a somewhat better game on guns than Dean, but not much better, and his actual actions on that front haven’t been especially impressive. DoJ is still defending the D.C. gun ban, which seems to conflict rather clearly with its interpretation of the Second Amendment, nor, to my knowledge, is the new interpretation affecting actual policy around the country. Will some GOP supporters conclude that there’s not that much difference between them?
The biggest difference between them is the war. That’ll help Bush unless the war either goes so well that it drops out of public consciousness, or so badly that Dean looks good. The latter isn’t likely, though I suppose it’s possible. The former seems somewhat more likely, though by no means assured.
But although Democrats’ claims about the “Bush deficit” aren’t getting a lot of traction — nobody takes the Dems seriously on the restraining-spending issue — Bush’s big-spending ways are probably demoralizing a lot of people who supported him as a smaller-government Republican. It’s worth remembering that Nixon’s foray into big-government led to the creation of the Libertarian Party, a split that has cost the GOP some close races. Does Bush want to be remembered (even by Republicans) as the next Nixon?
On the other hand, Nixon was re-elected in a landslide against an antiwar Democrat. . . .
UPDATE: Doc Searls thinks that lefty electoral-bloggers are taking the kind of lead that warbloggers took on, well, the war. He may be right.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader Devereaux Cannon emails:
For what it is worth–today I saw my first Democrat presidential bumper sticker for the 2004 election (discounting the “re-elect Gore in ’04” stickers). On my way into Nashville this morning I passed a Mercedes sporting a Howard Dean for President sticker.
I’ve seen a Kerry and an Edwards, but no Deans so far.
YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Gerard Van Der Leun thinks that Howard Dean is the beneficiary of blogosphere narcissism.
Well, hey, but if that gets you on the cover of Time and Newsweek, then . . . .