REMINDER: Flattening the curve always meant having higher hospitalizations now.

To recap, here are the graph features — and where we are as of June 18:

Dark black line: Hospital bed capacity, “approximately 25,000”

Red peak: The “minimal action” projection: hospitals overwhelmed by an order of magnitude, approximately 225,000 hospitalizations by the peak in late April

Orange peak: The “social distancing” projection: hospitals overwhelmed by a much smaller magnitude, approximately 90,000 hospitalizations by the peak in mid-May

Blue peak: The “stay-at-home” projection: hospitals never overwhelmed, approximately 12,000 hospitalizations by the peak in early July

June 18: Real-time data as of June 18, after recording the 10th record number of hospitalizations this month: 857 hospitalizations

These figures are for North Carolina, but it’s been more or less the same everywhere. Covid-19 has underperformed. To be fair, so has our political/journalistic class.