HOW THE POLLS GOT IT WRONG: “The electoral map leaves no doubt as to how Mr Trump won. In states where white voters tend to be well-educated, such as Colorado and Virginia, the polls pegged the final results perfectly. Conversely, in northern states that have lots of whites without a college degree, Mr Trump blew his polls away—including ones he is still expected to lose, but by a far smaller margin than expected, such as Minnesota. The simplest explanation for this would be that these voters preferred him by an even larger margin than pollsters foresaw—the so-called ‘shy Trump’ phenomenon, in which people might be wary of admitting they supported him. But in fact, the 29-point margin he ran up with this group was an almost perfect match for the 30-point gap that showed up in previous polling. That suggests an alternate interpretation: this group, which historically has had a low propensity to vote, turned out in far greater numbers than pollsters could predict.”