THE COMING NIGERIAN CRACK UP?

The February 14 elections (to be followed by state elections two weeks later) pit an unpopular incumbent against a veteran opposition leader. President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from southern Nigeria representing the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has been a controversial figure since he inherited the highest office from Umaru Yar’Adua, a Muslim who died in office in 2010. Because an informal power-sharing agreement within the PDP dictates that the presidency rotates between a northern Muslim and a southern Christian, many Nigerian Muslims were infuriated that their President had served for less than the two possible terms. They were even more enraged when Jonathan ran for re-election in 2011. Jonathan’s opponent for a second consecutive election is Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim from the All Progressives Congress (APC). Buhari was the country’s military ruler from 1983–85 and ran for President in 2003, 2007, and 2011. The APC is a newly formed political alliance of the four largest opposition parties, some of which supported Jonathan and the PDP in the last election.

There are many daunting election-related challenges in the coming months, not the least of which is security. Ongoing violence related to Boko Haram in three northeastern states has wreaked havoc, and although the electoral commission announced it will open polling stations there, nobody knows where and how this will be done. What observers do know is that those three states, which favor Buhari, will be extremely underrepresented when the final votes are tallied.

Nigeria’s Muslim north has traditionally had a place at the table due to superior martial prowess, while the Christian/other south has traditionally been richer. Recently, the south has gotten a lot richer. Most folks in the south wouldn’t lose a lot of sleep if the north simply broke off. However, I hear that a lot of surprising people favor Buhari simply because they think he would be able to crush Boko Haram. Goodluck Jonathan has not lived up to his name, not having been particularly lucky and having seemed a bit hapless. There are some much more competent figures in the south, but none are running for President this time.