DANIEL DREZNER IS betting against a Higher Education Bubble.

UPDATE: Brannon Denning emails: “Interesting, but isn’t his bet flawed? First, why those schools? Wouldn’t it be better to compare tuition at relatively non-selective public and private schools? Second, what the declared tuition is has little to do with what people are actually paying in tuition. Seems like looking at the average discount rate would be a better measure. Third, because the federal government essentially drove out private lenders, it can continue to lend money to people to go to college at taxpayer expense. Why would anyone expect the feds to turn off the spigot? Also not sure why 2020 is the date it should burst.”

Yeah, top schools — as I’ve said — will be the last to go, and may (as top law firms have, during the indisputable bursting of the legal bubble) still survive and get top dollar even as everything further down the totem pole collapses. Also, there’s a lot of tuition discounting now (disguised as scholarships and financial aid) even at top schools. You’d have to take that into account.