A DEBATE PREDICATION, BASED ON HISTORY: “Mitt Romney will probably lose the debate tonight. At least in pundit-world. Why? Because Republicans almost always lose by a large majority there, even when they win in more substantial forums. Everyone knows that Ronald Reagan handed Jimmy Carter his hat when they debated in Cleveland on October 28, 1980. But at the time, much of pundit-world concluded that Carter ‘won on content.’ If the bulk of the country failed to appreciate Carter’s forensic mastery, it was because it was seduced by Reagan’s ‘style.’ In the first Reagan–Mondale debate in 1984, when the former vice president was less dull than usual, pundit-world dumped on Reagan and proclaimed a big win for his opponent. Yet post-debate polls showed that a majority of voters ‘said they found Reagan’s answers closer to their own thinking on the issues.'”