Archive for 2007

IT’S THE TENTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE JARRELL, TEXAS TORNADO: Warnings are better, but tornadoes like this are hard to survive. Makes me glad I got the weather radio that I mentioned a while back, though happily tornadoes aren’t a big issue in Knoxville. We get ’em, but they tend to be comparatively weak and short-lived.

And if tornado-related issues interest you, check out the NOAA Skywarn page.

RALLYING BIG FOR FREE SPEECH In Venezuela.

JULES CRITTENDEN CRITICIZES the AP’s body-count mentality. “I thought body counts went out with the Vietnam War.”

TROOP CUTS IN IRAQ? Don Surber says we’ve heard this story before.

On the other hand, this story, not so much. More on that silence from James Taranto. And a roundup here.

But here’s some good news:

U.S. forces raided an al-Qaida hide-out northeast of Baghdad on Sunday and freed 42 Iraqis imprisoned inside, including some who had been tortured and suffered broken bones, a senior U.S. military official said Sunday.

Al Qaeda tortures people? Who knew? I wonder if they have a manual for that sort of thing?

MORE: A not-very-convincing claim that the torture manual is a fake. Could be, of course — but that’s not why the press isn’t covering it. If there were any actual evidence that it were a fake, they’d be slamming the Bush Administration with it, after all.

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SO MY PANEL was on — hold your breath — blogging, and featured Anthony Duignan-Cabrera of Space.Com, Alan Boyle of MSNBC’s Cosmic Log, Rob Pearlman of CollectSpace, and uber-spaceblogger Jeff Foust. (Another uber-spaceblogger, Clark Lindsey, wasn’t here, and was missed.)

It was interesting, though the dramatic light meant that I couldn’t actually see anyone in the audience. It makes for pretty cool photos, though — this is moderator Anthony Duignan-Cabrera, who looks as if there’s a Martian sunrise behind him.

As I mentioned earlier, I haven’t been to an International Space Development Conference in years. Things have changed a bit, and that was probably more apparent to me than to people who have been going every year. But lots of people were remarking on some changes.

Most notably, the character of the attendees has changed. There’s less of a science-fiction-convention feel, as more of the people attending are actually making their living in the space biz, and particularly the commercial space biz. One of the people I was talking to last night was noting that there were a lot more attractive women than in the past, a change she put down to the presence of a lot more “good-looking men with money.”

There’s something to that, and Alan Boyle has a post on the entrepreneurial activity at the conference. I have to say that it’s the first time I’ve seen Brioni suits at an ISDC — as happened a few years ago with the nanotech conferences I attend, suddenly there’s a sizable contingent of venture capitalists, investment bankers, big-firm lawyers, and the like. There’s not a space bubble yet, but a guy I spoke with who knows a lot said that “the bubble’s scheduled for two years from now,” and that seems about right.

What’s going on right now isn’t vaporware, but real stuff. And what’s really interesting is that we’re seeing an entire infrastructure of secondary suppliers — engines, avionics, spaceports, etc. — springing up, often having contracts with numerous ventures. There’s also an interesting mix of cooperation and competition among the players, who all want to succeed themselves, but who also really want to see others make it too. It’s really looking more and more like the early days of the computer industry.

Below: (L-R) Alan Boyle, Jeff Foust, Rob Pearlman. Not pictured: Me, taking the picture.

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It wasn’t all venture capitalists, though. There was a large contingent from Students for the Exploration and Development of Space. Those people go far — I found out that one woman I remember as a very active SEDS member from the early ’90s is now a professor of astronautics at MIT. Here’s the SEDS booth.

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Of course, it wasn’t all entrepreneurialism and career opportunities. Sex in space remains a perennial favorite topic:

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Surely this will give space tourism an, er, jumpstart. It’s clear, though, that the “NewSpace” entrepreneurialism is the source of the energy and excitement in the space community. There are some people who are excited by the Bush Administration / NASA Vision for Space Exploration initiative (more on that here and here) but while most people like the intent, it’s generally regarded as unlikely to get the longterm support from Congress that it needs to go anywhere. This view is apparently widespread within NASA, too, public statements to the contrary. The biggest fear is that we’ll wind up losing any ambitious programs, then trying to limp along with the Shuttle rather than bringing on a replacement vehicle as planned., But — and this is why people are excited — if the private space ventures succeed it won’t matter much as we’ll have access to orbit that way instead. Let’s hope that works out.

There was a lot of talk about the 2008 elections, as you might imagine. Bill Richardson is a clear favorite among a lot of people because of his excellent record on space entrepreneurialism in New Mexico. I heard someone talking about trying to sell Barack Obama on settling Mars (“Talk about an example of ‘the audacity of hope!’ This is it!”) but most doubt that either he or Hillary would be much good on space. Republicans are seen as representing something closer to the Bush Administration’s policies, which isn’t much of a compliment. Right now I don’t think that space is on any candidate’s radar screen very much. That may change: A good policy on space, particularly one that identified with the new entrepreneurial ventures, would get a candidate the support of some smart and energetic people, as well as imbuing his/her campaign with an overall sense of optimism and progress. Space still has a lot of mana, notwithstanding NASA’s problems.

One prominent space activist said that his strategy is to “save the baby” — that is, he’s not so much interested in getting Congress and the Administration to do what he wants, as just trying to ensure that they don’t manage to kill the space industries before they really get started (something that’s certainly not beyond Congress or, for that matter, the NASA bureaucracy if it feels sufficiently threatened).

And the best line on space policy is actually an old one from Rand Simberg, but it represents how the next Administration, of whatever party, ought to approach the subject: “It’s not NASA’s job to send a man to Mars. It’s NASA’s job to make it possible for the National Geographic Society to send a man to Mars.” Indeed.

UPDATE: Another report here.

And some earlier ISDC posts here (Mars rovers) and here (Buzz Aldrin). Or just scroll for multiple additional posts.

BRAIN-EATING ZOMBIES in San Francisco.

It’s always Zombies, isn’t it?

FROM ANBAR, MICHAEL YON POSTS A MEMORIAL DAY MESSAGE: It’s a must-read, but here’s an excerpt on the situation in Iraq as he sees it:

I am out here in Anbar Province with Task Force 2-7 Infantry. The area around Hit (pronounced “heat”) is so quiet previous units likely would not recognize the still. There was a small IED incident this morning, and the explosion was a direct hit, but the bomb was so small that mechanics had the vehicle back in shape by late afternoon. Calm truly has fallen on this city.

Dishes are appearing on rooftops and people are communicating more freely. During today’s prayers, one mosque announced that divorce is bad and that parents should take care of their children. One mosque cried about Christians and Jews, while yet another announced that Al-Jazeera is lying and people should not watch it.

Long-time readers know that I deliver bad news with the good. I was first to write that parts of Iraq were in civil war back in February 2005, well over a year before mainstream outlets started reporting the same. I was also the first to report, back in 2005, that Mosul was making a turn for the better. Mainstream outlets hardly picked up on that story, however, although the turn was easy to see for anyone who was there. When I returned from Afghanistan in the spring of 2006, after writing about the growing threat of a resurgent Taliban, bankrolled with profits from the heroin trade, I wrote that parts of our own military were censoring media in Iraq. The recent skirmishing over blogging from Iraq supports that contention. These reminders are for new readers who do not believe that a province that most media outlets had put at the top of the “hopelessly lost” column is actually turning a corner for the better.

Although there is sharp fighting in Diyala Province, and Baghdad remains a battleground, and the enemy is trying to undermine security in areas they’d lost interest in, the fact is that the security plan, or so-called “surge,” is showing clear signs of progress.

Read the whole thing. And remember that he is supported by his readers, so if you like his work, hit the tipjar.

UPDATE: Michael emails this photo, and reports: “I made this photo in a market in Hit, Anbar Province Saturday. LTC Doug Crissman walked through the market with only two soldiers and an unarmed interpreter. We took our time and walked about two miles. The people just wanted to talk, but as late as February this year, Hit was a gun battle. Yet on Saturday, the only battle I saw was that of a very rotund boy trying to slurp down an ice cream before it dripped away in the heat. Just down the road, hundreds of men were lining up to join the police.”

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THE KNOXVILLE NEWS-SENTINEL OFFERS FACTS VS. FICTION in the Channon Christian / Christopher Newsom murders. Excerpt:

# Fiction: Christian was held captive four days.
# Fact: Christian was dead within 24 hours of the kidnapping.

# Fiction: Christian’s breasts were cut off and Newsom’s penis severed.
# Fact: Neither Christian nor Newsom was mutilated, although both suffered tearing injuries from being repeatedly raped.

# Fiction: Christian was dismembered and placed in five separate trash bags.
# Fact: Christian’s intact body was wrapped in trash bags and dumped in a large garbage can.

# Fiction: Acid was poured down Christian’s throat.
# Fact: A cleaning solution was poured in Christian’s mouth in an apparent attempt to wash away DNA evidence.

# Fiction: The slaying suspects allegedly targeted white people.
# Fact: The slaying suspects have told authorities they targeted Christian’s Toyota 4Runner.

The truth seems bad enough. And here’s more on the story and how it’s been played.

UPDATE: Related thoughts here.

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THE NATIONAL SPACE SOCIETY gives its Wernher von Braun award once every two years. This year it went to Prof. Steven Squyres, father of the Spirit and Opportunity Mars rovers, whose 90-day mission has now run over 1200 Mars days (or “sols” as they’re called). He’s also the author of Roving Mars: Spirit, Opportunity, and the Exploration of the Red Planet.

He gave a very interesting talk, and showed some pictures and video from Mars that I hadn’t seen before. The $400 Million for this mission seems quite well spent, as we’ve learned all sorts of useful things about Mars. The pathfinding role of these probes, which have produced all sorts of data we’ll find useful in the event of manned missions or colonization, also illustrates the silliness of the manned vs. unmanned exploration debate.

I saw Ben Bova — another former NSS Chair whom I hadn’t seen in years — and he was doing quite well. It was his first International Space Development Conference in a while, too. “What made you come this year,?” I queried. “They asked me to,” he responded. “That’s pretty much what it was with me,” I replied.

I had a good time — I used to be stuck in Board meetings at these things, but this time I actually got to enjoy the conference. I had dinner with Bob Zubrin — author of The Case for Mars and a forthcoming book on energy policy and how to destroy Opec — who is shown below explaining the superiority of Methanol as an alternative fuel.

More on the conference later.

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UPDATE: Who’s Zubrin talking to? Loretta Hidalgo Whitesides, co-founder of Yuri’s Night.

SPACE DIVING: I was talking to Rick Tumlinson about this after lunch and was going to do a post, but here’s a report from Leonard David.

THE BULB CONTEST IS HEATING UP: The Kossacks are up to 1000 bulbs already.

They’ve still got a long way to go to catch up with InstaPundit readers, though.

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SAW BUZZ ALDRIN AT LUNCH — I hadn’t seen him in the flesh in years (he was NSS Board Chairman back when I was NSS Executive Chair), and he still looks great. We managed to catch up a bit. He’s writing for Popular Mechanics now, too and likes it as much as I do. He gave a speech about the importance of evolution in procurement and research, and how we’ve fallen away from the evolutionary approach in such things in favor of something bureaucratic and lame.

I certainly can’t argue. But what’s interesting is that while the government space programs don’t inspire a lot of excitement, there’s huge interest in the many startup space companies spawned by the X-Prize and related developments. This “NewSpace” sector, as people are calling it (It’s easier than “new entrepreneurial space enterprises”) is really vibrant, and these people are actually building things, not just peddling vaporware.

It was a good speech, and drew numerous rounds of applause and laughter. One thing for Buzz — he’s been working to promote space tourism, space development, and space settlement tirelessly for years. I couldn’t handle his travel schedule, and he’s thirty years older than me. (And when we ran in the Race For Space over a decade ago, he was faster than me.) He spoke eloquently about how unfair it was that he and only a few others had managed to experience space and the Moon, and how important it is that others get to share that experience.
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I certainly think he’s right. I believe that the space tourism efforts we see now will help jumpstart things, and generate a learning curve, and efficiencies, that the NASA programs have never achieved — and, in fact, have sometimes even undermined. And I think it’s a big benefit to have Buzz Aldrin in there pushing for this kind of thing. Ten years ago, space tourism had a high “giggle factor.” Now it’s taken seriously, and things are just starting.

WHAT THE WORD “UTERUS” DOES TO MEN, including the results of actual research.

NOT EVERYBODY AT THE CONFERENCE is from a hot space startup. Robotics is cool, too.

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WITH ALL THE DISCUSSION OF THE DANGEROUS BOOK FOR BOYS, several readers have written to praise Bertrand Brinley’s Mad Scientists’ Club books, which — though fiction — certainly embody the “dangerous” approach. And there’s more than a glimpse of my own boyhood in them. As I wrote a while back: “Interesting review at Slashdot, with an observation that occurred to me, too — the kids in the Mad Scientists’ Club stories seem a lot more independent and free-ranging than kids today. And I think that, with allowances for their excessively-easy access to vital items of scientific equipment at crucial story points, these are pretty realistic portrayals of kids in the 1960s and 1970s. (Sounds like my gang o’ geeks, anyway.) Lots of interesting stuff in the comments, too, including a reference to the Henry Reed books, which I’ve mentioned here before.”

As I noted elsewhere, my daughter devoured the Henry Reed books, but saw The Mad Scientists’ Club as more of a boy thing, which I can understand.

“OBSCENE AMENITIES:” Happy Memorial Day weekend!

Last night while hanging out in the bar with Rand Simberg and Dale Amon (of Samizdata), I saw some British soldiers at the other end. I had the waitress send them a round of drinks. She wasn’t supposed to tell them who did it, but apparently those guys are good at extracting information and their CO came over to say thanks. He said that it meant a lot to his men: they don’t get a lot of support from the public in Britain and that they like it when they’re in the U.S. for training, etc., because the American public is more supportive. I thought that was kind of sad, actually, but I was glad to do something for them. When I’m out and see military folks I often try to pick up their tab anonymously; this is the first time someone’s blabbed. I encourage InstaPundit readers to do the same if the mood strikes you. I think it’s appreciated, and not just because of the free food or drink.

UPDATE: AMillionThanks.org organizes thank-you cards and letters to the troops.

BRING IT ON! Over at Daily Kos, they’ve decided to try to beat the InstaPundit readers in the One Billion Bulbs competition. InstaPundit readers have a commanding lead, but I expect the Kossacks to come on strong.

THE OTHER DAY, I mentioned behind the scenes efforts to kill the lobbyist bundling reporting bill. Those seem to have failed, and the bill has passed the House by a wide margin. It could be stronger, but it’s at least a step forward. And note this observation:

By the way, that lopsided final vote to pass it also reflects a Washington phenomenon. As Fred Wertheimer told me in my update to that original post, “Floor votes are our friend.” If this had been a secret ballot, most people I talk to think it would have lost. But once it became clear it was going to pass, no one wanted to be publicly on record as defending the discredited status quo. There was a bipartisan stampede to be on the side of open government.

I do think that all the attention on these matters has helped. As I said in my earlier post, there’s a lot they don’t want the public to know. But they don’t want the public to know that . . . . (Via Kevin Drum).

UPDATE: Something for PorkBusters to aspire to? This success is nice, but I don’t think it’s quite in that league.