Archive for 2006

“NUGGETS OF DEATH?” Not so much, according to Ed Cone.

UPDATE: Different, but related, post from Tom Maguire.

A LOOK AT THE ALBERTA OIL RUSH: I’m all for big increases in oil production in politically stable places (bring on the Colorado oil rush, too), but I think that one upside of current high oil prices, besides bringing all this additional capacity online, is that it’s getting people to look beyond oil as an energy source. I hope we’ll see more of that, too.

UPDATE: Like this:

In the early 1970s when I helped found Greenpeace, I believed that nuclear energy was synonymous with nuclear holocaust, as did most of my compatriots. That’s the conviction that inspired Greenpeace’s first voyage up the spectacular rocky northwest coast to protest the testing of U.S. hydrogen bombs in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. Thirty years on, my views have changed, and the rest of the environmental movement needs to update its views, too, because nuclear energy may just be the energy source that can save our planet from another possible disaster: catastrophic climate change.

Look at it this way: More than 600 coal-fired electric plants in the United States produce 36 percent of U.S. emissions — or nearly 10 percent of global emissions — of CO2, the primary greenhouse gas responsible for climate change. Nuclear energy is the only large-scale, cost-effective energy source that can reduce these emissions while continuing to satisfy a growing demand for power. And these days it can do so safely. . . . I am not alone among seasoned environmental activists in changing my mind on this subject. British atmospheric scientist James Lovelock, father of the Gaia theory, believes that nuclear energy is the only way to avoid catastrophic climate change. Stewart Brand, founder of the “Whole Earth Catalog,” says the environmental movement must embrace nuclear energy to wean ourselves from fossil fuels.

Indeed. Read the whole thing.

SOUTH PARK, BORDERS AND MORE: Tigerhawk looks at the “violence veto” and its implications.

UPDATE: Rand Simberg says we now know who the defenders of free speech are. And aren’t.

STRATEGYPAGE LOOKS AT DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ and sounds two themes often heard here — that the problem is political, not military, and that the biggest political problem is corruption:

It’s corruption that Iraqi politicians understand as well as their Western counterparts. Get elected, get access to public money, and steal as much as you can without getting punished. This is where the real war for Iraq’s future is being fought. There will be some corruption, that is understood. No government on the planet is completely free of it. But too much, and the government does not work. The voters become unhappy, unrest grows, and you end up with another dictator. Right now, the politicians are so corrupt that they could drive the country back to a dictator in less than a decade. Many Iraqis are aware of this. The question is, will enough honest Iraqis step up, at great risk to themselves, to establish and maintain a viable (relatively honest and efficient) government? No one knows, and the politicians are still arguing over who will have what ministry so that we can start ruling, and dealing with some very pressing problems.

The government has to deal with corruption, in the long run, and the militias, in the short run. The Sunni Arab terrorists and Saddam loyalists are still fighting, but they have lost. Most Sunni Arab leaders are now more concerned about protecting their people from the Iraqi army and police. These security forces are not only dominated by Kurds and Shia Arabs, but are strong, and growing stronger. Iraq’s Sunni Arab neighbors have given up any ideas of actively supporting putting the Iraqi Sunni Arabs back in power. Instead, the neighbors are hoping the Shia Arabs and Kurds running the new Iraqi government will help containing Iran. That is the major goal of the Arab nations of the region. That sometimes gets forgotten in the West. They never forget it in the Persian Gulf.

Turning Iraq into a dependable ally against Iran has always been part of the strategy, I think. I hope it works, and sooner rather than later.

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HAPPY EASTER! We had fun with my brother, sister-in-law, and nephew William, who enjoyed his first Easter egg hunt and managed to look shockingly cool in the process.

It was fun to see all the little kids enjoying themselves, and all the neighborhood parents working together to make a good time for all concerned.

The weather was perfect, something not to be taken for granted in Southern Ohio. Last night we sat on the deck, drank beer, and watched tremendous displays of chain lightning for a long time before the rain set in. By morning the rain was gone, and it was crystal clear. I actually found myself wishing it were a bit cooler this afternoon, as we squinted at inadequate swingset documentation under a hot sun.

Still, a great weekend. I hope you’re having a happy Easter too.

Getting together with family and friends is one of life’s underappreciated pleasures. Appreciate it, while you can, as they won’t always be there forever.

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As you can see, I managed to make a new friend. Funny I always though of the Easter Bunny as being bigger. My nephew William (shown with his mom, Victoria, below) wasn’t sure what he thought about the Easter Bunny, but he liked the eggs. Hope your day is good!

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AUSTIN BAY AND JEFF JARVIS engage in productive dialog.

STRATEGYPAGE:

In the last six months, the U.S. Army is seeing 15 percent more soldiers re-enlist than expected. This continues a trend that began in 2001. Every year since then, the rate at which existing soldiers have re-enlisted has increased. This despite the fact that 69 percent of the troops killed in Iraq have been from the army. New recruits continue to exceed join up at higher rates as well.

All this is extremely important, especially when there is a war going on. Experience saves lives in combat, and more of the most experienced troops are staying in. This means that, a decade from now, the army will have a large and experienced corps of senior NCOs. That, in turn, means the younger troops are likely to well trained and led.

The army makes a big thing, internally, about the number of troops re-enlisting, especially within combat units that are in Iraq or Afghanistan. Pictures of mass re-enlistments are published in military media, but the civilian media has generally ignored this phenomena. Also ignored, except by some local media interviewing locals who are in the army, is the positive attitude of the troops, especially those in combat units. The large number of re-enlistments occur because the troops believe they are making a difference, and winning. This is especially true for soldiers who have come back to Iraq on a second tour, and noted the improvements since the first tour.

Read the whole thing.

YES, LIGHT BLOGGING: Spent most of the day assembling a swingset with my brother. Upside: The process involved power tools, and my brother. Downside: Whatever cut-rate supplier provided this monstrosity to Wal-Mart. Holes drilled improperly, missing parts, unclear instructions: A mess. Yeah, these things usually are. Still, it was a beautiful day, and we did get to use power tools.

UPDATE: Heh. Though a table saw is something to be regarded with respect, if not fear.

BILL HOBBS HAS LOST HIS JOB FOR BLOGGING: The Knoxville News-Sentinel’s Michael Silence calls it “sickening” and “pathetic.” He’s right.

I call it a defining moment for Belmont University, in which that institution squandered all the goodwill and interest among bloggers that it spent the past couple of years building up.

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LIGHT BLOGGING as we’ve travelled up to visit my brother this afternoon. I’m blogging from a cafe where he’s doing an acoustic set with his friend Blake, as “46 Long.” They’re both big guys!

I’ll be back later, probably, but in the meantime enjoy the many other fine blogs in the blogosphere! It’s a distributed system, after all, with many mutually supporting nodes.

Which makes as good an excuse to hang out and drink beer with my brother as I’m likely to find.

As you can see, they’re both handsome devils. That’s quite impressive in my brother’s case, given that he’s the smart one, and I’m the good looking one.

But hey, that still leaves room, right?

Hope you’re having a good time tonight, too.

UPDATE: No, it’s not this brother, whose band is a bit, um, different.

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KILLER BEARS IN TENNESSEE:

Using traps baited with honey buns and doughnuts, officials Friday tried to track down a black bear that killed a 6-year-old girl and critically injured her mother and 2-year-old brother.

The family had been at a pool below a waterfall in the Cherokee National Forest on Thursday afternoon when the bear attacked, the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency said.

Witnesses said the bear snatched up the boy in its mouth as the mother and other visitors tried to fend it off with sticks and rocks, said Dan Hicks, a spokesman for the agency.

The 6-year-old girl ran away but was later found dead about 100 yards down the trail, with a bear standing over her, authorities said.

A student of mine from the area says that the bear problem has been getting worse, and that they wander outside the park, but that authorities have been downplaying it. This reminds me of David Baron’s terrific book, The Beast in the Garden: The True Story of a Predator’s Deadly Return to Suburban America. I wrote a column about that a while back. The bottom line is that predators are dangerous, and especially so when they’ve learned not to fear human beings. There’s probably a larger lesson there, as I note in the column.

HUGH HEWITT will be doing an online chat on the Washington Post at 11am ET.

MORE CRUSHING OF DISSENT?

UPDATE: Eugene Volokh: “It’s quite sad, I think, that these university professors are responding to offensive ideas not just by arguing against them, but by trying to coercively suppress them (apparently, according to the ADF’s letter, with considerable support from their colleagues). I expect that the university will promptly dismiss the complaint, since even under the university’s own policy such speech is not prohibited — among other reasons, the speech wasn’t ‘based on a person’s protected status,’ since the statements weren’t about the complainants, and weren’t targeted towards the complainants because of their sexual orientation. But it reflects badly on the complainants that the complaint is even being filed.”

It’s also quite a black eye for Ohio State.

MICKEY KAUS: “Jared Paul Stern may be a slimebag, but he gives good interview, especially for a guy in the U.S. Attorney’s headlights.”

DOUG WEINSTEIN DEFENDS HOWARD STERN against shrinking-audience criticism.

STEPHEN GREEN looks at the political impact of an immigration-driven third party candidacy in 2008.

CHESTER POSTS a big Iran roundup.

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CHINESE BLOGGER HAO WU remains in prison after 52 days. Rebecca MacKinnon has lots of information, links, and background.

Here’s the webpage for the Chinese Embassy.

STRATEGYPAGE ON IRAQ:

The rising threat of a sectarian civil war appears to be helping to avert one. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and some other nations bordering Iraq are increasing measures to curb extremist support in Iraq, and are curbing assistance to groups responsible for actions that are feeding sectarian tensions. Apparently leaders in these countries have decided that an Iraqi civil war along sectarian lines will inevitably spill over onto their soil, as large numbers of refugees flee the fighting, while their own citizens become radicalized in support of co-religionists in Iraq, both events possibly fueling internal disorders. There are a lot of Shia Arabs in places like Saudi Arabia, Syria and Kuwait. Most of these Shia Arabs live near the Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields. It has always been, at least since the oil was discovered, the policy of both nations, to keep their Shia happy, or at least quiet.

Meanwhile, Iraq is also serving as an experiment on how to create an Arab economy that will flourish. . . . One of the things that has been changed in Iraq is the way the economy is regulated. Since Saddam was tossed out in 2003, the economy has been governed by Western rules. As a result, GDP per capita doubled by the end of 2005, and the GDP is expected to grow another 49 percent by 2008. All this despite continued attacks by Sunni Arab rebels on oil facilities and other economic targets. It’s much easier to start a business in Iraq now, even though there’s still a lot of corruption. The big change is that now the corruption is illegal, and there is even progress in prosecuting the government officials who take bribes or try to shake down businessmen.

Read the whole thing. As I’ve noted before, corruption is a bigger barrier to progress in Iraq than the insurgency; this makes it sound as if things are improving.

LARRY KUDLOW: “We’re in an American boom and I cannot understand why there is so much pessimism.”