NYT’S NEEDLE GOES TO LEANS TRUMP:

We’ll know soon enough.

UPDATE: The needle’s moved considerably in less than an hour:

ANOTHER UPDATE: Half an hour after the last update, things keep evolving:

And if, as seems very possible, Trump wins the popular vote, then the National Popular Vote Compact comes into play, giving him practically all the remaining blue state electoral votes. Watch them try to wriggle out of it if that happens.

MORE: Oh, my. 20 minutes later: