NATE SILVER DEBUNKS THE LATEST MEDIA TREND: Americans love Florida, even if you don’t: The rate of “mover’s remorse” is statistically low. Understanding why might help in understanding America. “In principle, a state could still have a net positive migration flow is a lot of people leave it, provided that even more people arrive But Florida isn’t like that: it has a high rate of in-migration and a low rate of out-migration. . . . Sure, in a state with 22 million residents, you’re going to find plenty of leavers, like the half-dozen people the NBC story interviewed. But this is not a typical pattern.”

Plus: “One of the underlying themes in my work is that people make far too many inferences about public opinion from the preferences expressed by their friends or professional peers. That may be especially true for progressives who work in media given the blob-like nature of the mainstream media, where progressive, liberal, centrist and center-right news outlets are all smooshed together, but there aren’t a lot of outright Trump supporters and there isn’t much cultural conservatism. And part of it is that Florida, like no other state, challenges the Emerging Democratic Majority hypothesis. If looked at in a highly abstract way, you might expect Florida — a diverse coastal state — to be solidly blue, but instead it has gotten redder: ground zero for Democrats’ increasing erosion with nonwhite voters. Some 42 percent of the Miami metro’s population was born abroad, the highest rate in the country. Miami proper is majority foreign-born, though many of the immigrants there are patriotic (as immigrants often are) and have become US citizens.”