VOTERS FLEEING BLUE COUNTIES: Do a deep-dive analysis of the top 10 counties for out-migration, as Issues & Insights (I&I) did recently and one of the common characteristics that most stands out could be a portent of the November election results:

“I&I conducted a detailed analysis of the latest Census data, comparing migration trends and the 2020 election outcomes for all 3,144 counties. What we found is that Biden-voting counties lost a net of 3.7 million people (3,670,516 to be exact) to Trump-voting counties from 2020 through 2023. (That’s up by more than a million since we did this same analysis last year.)

“In other words, in just the three years after Biden won his election, more than 1 percent of the population had packed up and moved out of counties that voted for him.”

So, will those numbers lead to bigger margins for Trump where he won in 2020 and reverse Biden’s outcomes in counties where he won last time around? Or will this wave of Blue county voters dilute or even cancel out Trump’s margins in his winning areas?