NORM GERAS: “I understand from a friend in Washington that, contrary to the report in The Nation that’s being going round the blogs, retired Colonel Sam Gardiner does not believe an ‘October surprise’ military strike on Iran is imminent. Gardiner, who who has war-gamed air strikes on Iran independently of the Bush administration, thinks an attack is likely at some point before Bush leaves office; but it is still some way off.”

I agree. And so, apparently, does Ahmadinejad:

“Their latest decision was to gather all their political force and frown at us, cast bad looks and shout with empty threats to force us to retreat,” Ahmadinejad said in a televised speech in a rally in a town west of the capital.

That pretty well describes the multilateral nonproliferation process, I have to admit.