PEOPLE HAVE BEEN EMAILING ME THE POLLS, but I haven’t been linking them because polls are dubious and tend to fluctuate. But now Chris Bowers writes: “Bush’s approval is up. Fortunately, it still isn’t very good, but you would have to be in denial at this point to not notice the upward trend.”

Yes, it’s noticeably up from where it was. The question is whether the trend will continue. I suspect that it’ll matter less anyway after the ’06 elections, when everyone is looking at ’08.

To the extent that Bush has improved, I do think that it has to do with security voters, giving more support to Jim Geraghty’s thesis. (Rasmussen says that Bush’s increase stems from returning base members, though he doesn’t make clear if they’re “security voters.” Seems likely, though, given that it’s the week of 9/11 and Bush made a big issue of that). Bush is, however, not doing as well with the “war base” as he was a couple of years ago because he doesn’t seem to be pressing as vigorously as Jacksonian voters would prefer.

Bowers, on the other hand, thinks it’s all about gas prices. In which case Bush’s approval may rise some more, if forecasts are correct.