CDR SALAMANDER: Do we give them the war they want?

This question is why I’m not as depressed as some people that Israel hasn’t jumped into Gaza yet. The atrocities were almost certainly intended to provoke a hasty reaction. (Sure, the drugged up footsoldiers did them just for fun, and the Palestinian civilians — and American academics — loved them, but that wasn’t the strategic goal, just fanservice.) They’ve had years to prepare Gaza as a trap, and urban combat is awful and bloody under the best of circumstances.

And anyway, Iran is behind this. If I were the Israelis I’d be making a demonstration at Gaza to hold people’s attention, while planning to take out the Hamas leadership (in Qatar, last I heard, but demonstrating that Qatar can’t protect them would be a bonus) along with some senior Iranians in Iran. And maybe some high economic value targets like oil terminals. Let the Gazans stew in their juices without power or water or sufficient excitement to make them feel important.

Is that the actual plan? No idea.

Similar considerations apply to the United States. Personally, I’m okay with Linebacker III, but our ability to kill individual Iranian leaders like Soleimani points the way to a different approach.