April 20, 2006

DANIEL DREZNER HAS AN OPEN THREAD ON IRAN: I’m not sure what to do. I tend to agree with Jim Dunnigan that military action right now would be a mistake, and that we should be working for regime change, and supporting anti-Mullah activities in Iran. (Perhaps we are, but I don’t see much sign of it). I think some of the fears are overstated — I’ve heard people talk about the Iranians developing an EMP weapon, but I think they’re a long way from that. I think you need a thermonuclear (hydrogen), not simply a nuclear weapon to get a crippling EMP pulse (this says that you need at least a megaton device) and that’s much harder than a simple atomic bomb. On the other hand, claims that the U.S. can’t do anything militarily to Iran are silly — there are lots of things we could do, I’m just not convinced they’re a good idea.

Congressional Democrats aren’t offering many suggestions, though. (Via Billmon, who hasn’t stopped blogging yet!) I don’t really blame them for that — I don’t have any good ones myself — but I do hope that their silence now will be remembered when they pop up to criticize whatever the Administration does, or doesn’t, do.

We had Jim Dunnigan and Austin Bay talking about Iranian nukes and what to do in this podcast a few weeks back. We’re going to try to get them on again soon.

UPDATE: This is interesting:

Recent developments regarding the possibility of an Iranian nuclear weapons program have struck a nerve in India. As a result, India has greatly increased its intelligence efforts directed against Iran, and is looking for ways to cooperate with the United States and the European Union. This at the same time India is developing economic and military deals with Iran. The commercial and military people in Iran, that India works with, seem sane enough. But the senior Iranian officials, calling for the destruction of Israel, death to America and converting everyone on the planet to Islam, are worrisome. To put it mildly. So the Indians are taking a close look at their neighbor Iran, with the aid of anyone who will help.


ANOTHER UPDATE: More thoughts here.

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