INSTITUTIONAL FAILURE IS EVERYWHERE: Alarming deterioration of US National Weather Service tornado warnings.

Research by Dr. Kevin Simmons demonstrates that 13 to 15 minutes of “lead time” (the interval of time from when a tornado warning is issued to then the tornado arrives) is ideal. From 2005 to 2011, National Weather Service tornado warnings averaged 13.3 minutes and tornadoes were detected in advance 73.3% of the time. At that same time, the radars were being “dual-polarized” to allow detection of tornado’s lofted debris for better tracking. Plus, the new generation of GOES weather satellites, the first that could sense lightning rates (which are sometimes very useful in determining in advance which thunderstorms will go severe or tornadic) was in operation. All of this should have resulted in new levels of tornado warning accuracy.

They did not. The quality of tornado warnings is deteriorating at an alarming rate!

How have things changed since 2020? We don’t know. The NWS’s tornado warning accuracy statistics used to be out in the open. Now, they are behind a login and password.

This is like the collapse of the Galactic Empire in Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy. Everything keeps getting worse but nobody does anything and they do their best to hide it. Or Christopher Nuttall’s Empire’s Corps(e) books.