JACK SHAFER: RFK Jr. Has Already Won. “The current Kennedy moment will soon be swamped by the Biden machine. But every day this final heir to America’s second greatest political dynasty spends on the hustings, he will continue rolling up winnings like an undetected card counter in Las Vegas.”

And incumbents who face a serious primary challenge generally lose. RFK Jr. is polling around 20%. Compare to Eugene McCarthy in 1968.