ONLY BECAUSE ITS COMPETITORS AREN’T VERY GOOD: SpaceX Now Has A De Facto Monopoly on Rocket Launches.
Satellite operators and government agencies doing business in space are increasingly dependent on one company to help them reach orbit: Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
SpaceX has cornered much of the rocket-launch market, with a proven fleet of reusable rockets that can fly at a pace that rivals can’t match—and at lower prices. The company’s rockets powered 66% of customer flights from American launch sites in 2022, and handled 88% in the first six months of this year, according to launch data compiled by Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist who tracks space activity.
That dominance is set to continue. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put one alternative, the Russian Soyuz rocket, off limits for many launch buyers. Rival vehicles from Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and the French launch company Arianespace haven’t flown yet.
And competitors are phasing out existing rockets as they transition to new ones. United Launch Alliance in June blasted off a government satellite on a Delta IV Heavy rocket, the second-to-last time it will use that vehicle. July 5 marked the final launch of Arianespace’s Ariane 5 rocket.
“The fact is that the competition can’t field anything right now and that makes SpaceX a de facto monopoly,” said John Holst, a former Air Force space operations officer who now writes a newsletter about the space industry.
SpaceX’s grip on the launch business means many government agencies and satellite operators must tether their ambitions to the company’s timetables and capabilities. Most launches ferry different kinds of satellites to orbit, where they do everything from provide internet service in remote areas to track weather and capture images of Earth. Some satellite-internet companies pay SpaceX to launch devices that help them compete with SpaceX’s own satellite-broadband service, Starlink.
SpaceX is also the only one ferrying NASA astronauts to and from the International Space Station. Several years ago, SpaceX began handling U.S. national-security spaceflights, ending the virtual monopoly that United Launch Alliance previously held on them. SpaceX and ULA now both conduct those launches.
By making SpaceX indispensible to the most powerful part of the Establishment, the military-industrial complex, Elon Musk has obtained a substantial degree of protection from his political enemies. He is a smart man.
Plus: “SpaceX’s dominance means a steady stream of revenue to support the Hawthorne, Calif.-based company’s ongoing programs, such as Starship, the massive new rocket SpaceX has been developing.”