DEREK LOWE LOOKS AT ANTIVIRALS AND AVIAN FLU EXCITEMENT:

The prospect of a flu pandemic has changed things, but the problem is, it’s too soon to say if people are now being more realistic or just more hysterical. In the last few weeks, though, I think things have tipped toward the latter. Avian flu, if it crossed over into some highly infectious human form, could be very bad news. But we’re not seeing that happen (yet) with the current bird flu. It’s worth remembering that flu viruses of this type have already crossed over into humans in recent years without taking off around the world. That doesn’t mean that it can’t happen, but it does mean that it’s not inevitable.

So, no one knows how likely a pandemic is, when it might occur, and how it might behave. It’s prudent to take a look at marginal compounds like peramivir, whose possible use against avian flu was being spoken about years ago. But it’s not prudent to buy, or urge others to buy Biocryst’s stock after it’s already tripled in price.

It’s important to prepare, since some other sort of pandemic is fairly likely even if Avian Flu never materializes as a threat. But don’t panic. Yet, anyway.