LEARNING TO LIVE WITHOUT IMPORTS: Russia’s Wartime Economy.

Stanislav is one of a growing number of Russian so-called import-export specialists — experts in finding loopholes and getting goods through customs — that have cropped up in response to western sanctions on the country.

Interviews with participants of this underground market reveal a lucrative but highly unpredictable and unstable trade, one on which Russia’s beleaguered economy will struggle to rely.

And yet, increasingly, rely it must. Sweeping sanctions introduced since the outbreak of war have roiled Russian supply chains and left many companies scrambling to source crucial foreign-brand products and parts.

When the heaviest sanctions were introduced in March, some economists predicted a rapid collapse in the Russian economy, perhaps by as much as 30 per cent. But that did not happen: oil and gas revenues continued to flow in and the currency soon recovered.

Instead, what is emerging is something different — not a dramatic decline, but a steady degradation of its productive capacity which economists in both Russia and the west argue is pushing the country back decades. Russia is trying to operate a modern economy without the ability to import many of the components, raw materials and technologies on which it depends.

The impact is being felt across the economy — from the banks that need servers to process payments to the country’s poultry industry, which had relied on the Netherlands as a supplier of the chicks from which broiler hens are grown for the mass production of eggs.

Agricultural firms are struggling to source tractor tyres, while airline companies are unable to secure foreign components to repair their planes.

Economies are resilient. You can bomb the crap out of countries and their economies will struggle on. Emphasis on the “struggle” part, though.