HMM: Why is the Fed Further Inverting the Yield Curve? “Whenever the interest rate on 3-month Treasury bills was much higher than the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds for over a month, that was always (yes, always) followed by a recession, usually within 6-12 months. Some may say that’s a coincidence or offer a reason ‘it’s different this time.’ But it is rarely wise to bet against a sure thing. “