KEEPIN’ UP THE SKEER: Ukraine could recapture Crimea as fleeing Russians continue to flounder.
Western officials have previously considered retaking Crimea by force impossible, because Russia was expected to fight tooth and claw to defend it.
But a senior US officer told The Telegraph that recent Russian military collapses mean “the recapture of Crimea by Ukraine is now a distinct possibility and can no longer be discounted”.
Pushing into Crimea would mean Ukraine going further than the front lines of Feb 23, when Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and would likely view a ground assault on the critical strategic enclave as a major escalation.
The US official said: “It is clear that Russia no longer has the ability or willpower to defend key positions, and if the Ukrainians succeed in their goal of recapturing Kherson, then there is a very real possibility that it will ultimately be able to recapture Crimea.”
The comments follow those from Laura Cooper, US deputy assistant secretary of defence, who said that Crimea was within Ukraine’s grasp. “And just to be clear, Crimea is Ukraine,” she added.
Putin is likely to disagree, but his opinion is carrying less weight every day.
Related: Russian Frontline Collapsing Due to Lack of Commanders:
Russia doesn’t have the commanders to stop its frontline collapsing, a defence expert has said.
Ed Arnold, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Sky News: “Effectively, the Russian front has started to collapse.
“When armies collapse like this they need very good commanders to rally the troops, which the Russians just don’t have at the moment.”
He said there were also “no natural defensive positions” around the Russian army.
As Ukraine has already achieved its “primary political objective” – of “showing the West that it can take back territory – and using the weapons systems provided to do that” – he said that it was now liberating as many settlements as possible before winter.
He added it will also aim to ensure occupied territories are in range of the longer-range weapons systems, “so they can further degrade the Russians”.
Stay tuned. A loss of the Crimea is not an existential threat to Russia, but it may be one to Putin.