MATTHEW CONTINETTI: The New Politics of Bifurcation: The electorate tunes Biden out—and why it matters for November.

The 2022 election grows more mysterious by the day. Republicans enter this cycle with the wind at their backs: President Biden is unpopular, voters say we are in a recession, Democratic majorities are razor-thin, and midterms favor the opposition party. The issue set—inflation, border security, crime, and the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan—is well-suited for Republican candidates. Many Democrats are retiring. GOP voters are enthusiastic. And did I mention the president is unpopular?

Yet Democrats are increasingly bullish about their electoral prospects.

Yeah, I’ve noticed that.