JOSH BLACKMAN: I’ve Finished Reading The Apparent Dobbs Draft Opinion. “After my spate of blog posts from Monday evening (1, 2, 3, 4), I took the time to read the apparent Dobbs draft opinion. It is a tour de force. Justice Alito meticulously dissects, and forcefully responds to, every conceivable position in favor of retaining Roe and Casey. I could teach an entire law school seminar class on this opinion. It touches on nearly every facet of constitutional law. Moreover, the opinion carefully addresses the concerns of other members of the majority.”

I suppose that makes it less likely the majority will break down.

Related: Chief Justice Roberts’s “Long Game” Was Turned Upside Down In An Instant. “No one–not even John Roberts–is omniscient enough to steward the Court as if it were a role-playing game. Indeed, I think many of the Court’s current problems, including the leak, stem from Roberts’s blatant attempt to rest his rulings on political currents. NFIB v. Sebelius established the playbook. It is not surprising that someone, no matter how poorly informed, though it would be a good idea to leak this draft.”

I warn my students that one of the most dangerous traps for a lawyer is thinking you’re smarter than you are. The Chief Justice has fallen into that trap. As Jurgen eventually discovered, cleverness is not on top, and never has been.