TRANSLATION OF A PURPORTED FSB ANALYSIS OF THE UKRAINE SITUATION: “Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.”

And: “You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon. And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon.”

Plus:

Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West). . . . To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.

First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people there and there is no single “red” button.

Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s mirky as to who controls what and how, but always reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

All of this sounds plausible. Now here’s the bit that makes me doubt that this is real:

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.

This is not an official report but a memo to outsiders from a single anonymous FSB analyst. But to say this about Putin either means that the FSB has turned against him enough that there’s no fear of repercussions (in which case Putin is likely toast) or that this is a fake and the final paragraph is the real payload — which doesn’t mean the earlier analysis is wrong or not what the FSB thinks, only that encouraging FSB and other official discontent with Putin is the real purpose of this analysis.

Or none of it could be true. Some friends who know more than I do think it’s plausible and could very likely be genuine, but even they’re cautious.