A RATHER MODEST BUSH DIP on the TradeSports and Iowa Electronic Markets futures exchanges. Seems about right to me.

UPDATE: Reader Dick Sears says I misread the graph:

I think you made a small error this morning.

There was no Bush debate dip, modest or otherwise. He did lose ground against where he had risen to during the debate, but all that meant was that he was back to where he’d been at the start of the debate.

I followed Tradesports and Iowa closely before, during, and after the debate to see who they “thought” was winning.

Tradesports most recent trades immediately before the debate started at 9:00 were 65.0 for Bush and 36.4 for Kerry. Bush gained steadily during the debate. For example, by 10:00 it was 67.4/33.7, with the same repeated at 10:35. But by 11:35, it was back pretty much where it had started, 65.5/36.0. This morning it was 65.0/35.9.

Iowa was perhaps closed for the day last night, because its 65/32 never wavered during the debate. But this morning it was 68.2/32.8.

So, if anything, I would say Bush had a modest gain.

The stock market seems to agree, except who ever knows why it does what it does?

Not me, and I’ve got the porfolio to prove it. More on the futures markets, and what they mean, here.