ROBERT NOVAK writes that the Bush Administration plans to cut-and-run from Iraq after the election.

I’m deeply skeptical, in part because of his shaky sourcing [At least he’s not claiming newly-discovered documents from Texas! — Ed.] but moreso because it doesn’t make much sense. We heard the same kind of cut-and-run discussion all through last year, centering around the transfer of sovereignty, and it didn’t happen then. From what I can tell (including a look at some of the units, including my secretary’s, that are on their way there now), it seems like we’re building up offensive capability, not getting ready to leave.

Could this be a head-fake? An effort to scare the Sunnis into thinking we’ll take a hands-off position while Shias and Kurds massacre them? Dirty intra-Administration politics? Or just a lousy story? Yes. Could it be true? I suppose so — I don’t get weekly memos from Condi spelling out what the plans are, and even if I did, I suppose those could be wrong, or dishonest — but I don’t see Bush having much of a second term if he cuts and runs in Iraq. In fact, I think that would be, for all practical matters, the end of his presidency.

Unless, of course, the “running” takes place via Tehran or Riyadh. Which I see as more likely.

Greg Djerejian is skeptical, too — though he thinks, as do I, that this would be a disaster if it’s true. Is it true? Let’s just say that at this point, I’m even more skeptical than usual of poorly-sourced stories that would be devastating for the Bush Administration if they were believed. I think I’ll retain that skepticism at least until the election. And I’m not the only one who feels that way.

UPDATE: Reader Mike Robinson emails:

Glenn, I am little confused. So Robert Novak claims Bush has a secret plan to cut and run next year from Iraq. Now, wait a minute. Wasn’t just a three days ago that Kerry was claiming Bush had a secret plan to call up more National Guard and Reserve troops? Why, yes he did. [“Kerry: Bush has secret troop call-up plan.”]

Well, which is it, dang it?!!? Are we going to escalate or cut or run? What other secret plans are there? I am soooo confused!

Yeah, it’s hard to remember what we’re supposed to be worrying about this week.