WE CAN HOPE: Is China Falling? Selling off resources, purging top officials, and defaulting on debt And it’s not just Evergrande that’s unable to service its debt.

I had a girlfriend in college whose family later owned some factories in China. I asked her about them last year and she replied “we sold out in 2006, we could see it wasn’t going to end well.”

UPDATE: Jim Bennett emails: “In 1914 Germany looked at Russia which was industrializing fast. They figured in 10 years they would be too strong to beat. Countries like that figure striking while they still have an edge is the least worst course of action. They can only be deterred by a credible deterrent force. Fortunately we have a credible President right now — or so I read.”