THIS SEEMS LIKE GOOD NEWS:

Al Qaeda operations in Iraq have encountered unexpected problems. Iraqis have become increasingly hostile to al Qaeda’s suicide bombing campaign. Religious leaders, which al Qaeda expects to get support from, have been openly denouncing these bombings. Iraqis, aware that they are more likely, than American soldiers, to be victims of these attacks, are providing more information on where the al Qaeda members are hiding out. Most of the al Qaeda in Iraq are foreigners, and easy for Iraqis to detect. As a result of this, many of the al Qaeda men have moved back to Fallujah, which has become a terrorist sanctuary. The interim government is trying to convince the tribal and religious leaders of Fallujah to back a military operation in the city to clear out the various al Qaeda, criminal and Baath Party gangs. But the gangs of Fallujah are quick to threaten any local leader that shows signs of supporting the government. While the Fallujah leadership is intimidated, many residents of Fallujah are not, and are providing information to the coalition, which has led to attacks, with smart bombs or coalition and Iraqi troops, on buildings used by al Qaeda, or other gangs, as headquarters.

Al Qaeda has found the atmosphere even more hostile elsewhere in Iraq, and many of the terrorists have returned home. This is especially true of those who came from Saudi Arabia (and other Gulf nations, particularly Yemen) and Syria. Few, if any, al Qaeda came from Iran, which is Shia Moslem. Al Qaeda is dominated by Sunni Moslems who are often violently anti-Shia. While the hundreds of returning al Qaeda veterans are still determined to achieve al Qaeda’s goals of world domination, they are also more realistic. Fanaticism was not sufficient to chase the foreigners from Iraq, and the Arab media’s sensational, and largely false, reporting of the impact of al Qaeda’s attacks contributed to the disillusionment.

Al Jazeera — CIA tool! (Via Scott Koenig, who notes that this is no accident, but part of the plan all along.)

UPDATE: This article from the Christian Science Monitor would seem to support the above account from StrategyPage:

But the city west of Baghdad is no longer a sympathetic rallying place for a unified Iraqi resistance. It is now seen as run by intolerant and exclusivist Sunni imams who are seeking to turn it into a haven for Al Qaeda ideologues. Fallujah is emerging as a symbol of the disparate nature of the overall insurgency inside Iraq. Many Shiites, like the Muthars, have stopped supporting it.

Since two of Muthar’s brothers and four of his cousins – all members in a family trucking cooperative – were tortured and murdered in the resistance stronghold three weeks ago, he’s changed his mind about how the US handled Fallujah.

“They should have done whatever it took to take that place over,” Muthar says. “It’s been left in the hands of people who call themselves Muslims but they’re not. They’re simply inhuman.”

As reader Phil Costopoulos suggests, this seems to be precisely what Zarqawi feared would happen based on the captured memo (which seems to have been authentic, based on subsequent events) that he allegedly authored.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader Tucker Goodrich emails:

At first I was furious when I heard the news that the decision not to let the Marines have free reign in Fallujah was made by politicians in DC.

But now, after seeing what’s happening there, it may have been brilliant to leave it for the Iraqis. Public opinion over there seems to be swinging our way big time, as they realize what’s actually happening to their country.

I think this may be right. And as suggested earlier in relation to Amir Taheri’s article, the effect has been to immobilize and concentrate them, which is what insurgents usually want to do to the government forces.

And could this be practice?

MORE: Read this, too.