THE NEW SPACE RACE: Space and the new struggle for civilisational supremacy.
In June 2021 Chinese and Russian space officials announced detailed plans for their joint International Lunar Research Station that will result in humans walking on the moon by the mid-2030s. Only a few days before the Sino-Russian announcement, Brazil became the twelfth country to sign the American-sponsored Artemis Accords, a set of principles for the future human exploration of the moon and beyond as well as the commercial exploitation of space resources. These accords are themselves inspired by the U.S. Artemis programme that was initiated by the Trump administration, and subsequently endorsed by President Biden, with the aim of returning Americans to the moon by the mid-2020s (the schedule has since slipped due to the impact of the COVID pandemic). Several other countries, to include Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, have also announced plans to send lunar rovers and other robotic explorers to the moon by the end of this decade in a bid not to be left behind by China and the United States.
What initially started as a nostalgic paean to ‘America First’ has since evolved into detailed multinational technical programmes, breath-taking budgets, and soaring ambitions for what will essentially amount to permanent human settlements on the moon along with its systematic commercial exploitation. This alone is a noteworthy, if uncontroversial, set of developments. But also significant are the underlying and implied civilisational tropes and mandates of the countries taking part. This is not our parents’ and grandparents’ space race of yore. This is China, Russia, the United States, and others seeking to leave a lasting civilisational imprint on the moon and in the solar system beyond.
To understand what is going on requires an acknowledgement that space exploration is not merely a matter of applying technology and universal scientific principles. . . .
Whether it’s a liberal (or even libertarian) civilisational order led by the United States and its SpaceX and Blue Origin commercial proxies, or a centralised statist civilisational order led by China (with Russia as a junior partner), the stakes in the contemporary space competition seem much larger than in its Cold War predecessor. That space race, while carried out by earlier versions of the civilisational state, aimed for ideological dominance on Earth rather than permanent dominion in space. In today’s competition, the civilisational state that comes out ahead with habitable lunar bases and space-based infrastructure to exploit economic opportunities will hold considerable sway in defining the terms and conditions for the future of spacefaring for everyone else.
Someone should write a book on this.
Related: China is using mythology and sci-fi to sell its space programme to the world.