BUSH’S PEOPLE SHOULDN’T BE COMFORTED by this piece in the New York Times:

By most measures prospects for George W. Bush’s re-election look very good. No single indicator guarantees a second term, of course, but on balance the president’s numbers are as good if not better than those of the three presidents who won second terms in recent times.

From a political standpoint, Mr. Bush is strong. His approval ratings are relatively high, as is the percentage of Americans who think the country is on the right track, and alone among recent presidents he saw his party gain seats in the midterm elections.

The economic numbers are also positive. Consumer confidence is high, disposable income is rising and the unemployment rate is lower than that of the three presidents who lost bids for re-election.

Just remember: the numbers looked good for Gore, last time around. I think that Bush remains vulnerable under the right circumstances.

UPDATE: Interesting poll discussion at Kevin Drum’s.