THEY DUG THE HOLE THEMSELVES:

[T]he French are beginning to get worried about business relations with the US. French sales to the US seem to be collapsing. In March they had a €97 million trade surplus with the US, but in April that became a €202 million trade deficit. A change that massive means either a dramatic rise in American sales to France, which seems unlikely, or a dramatic decline in French sales to the US, and it’s got to be a lot more than just wine and cheese. There isn’t any official boycott or trade sanctions, but there seems to be something big going on.

Yep. I hear that tourism is down dramatically, too.

UPDATE: A reader points out something that I should have thought of — the Euro has been rising against the dollar. On the other hand, the article notes that France’s trade position vis-a-vis Japan has improved, and the Euro has also been strong against the Yen. That suggests that there’s more going on than simple exchange-rate pressure.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader Eric Thorpe emails:

$100 to $200 million isn’t that much money, especially when items like Airbus and Boeing aircraft can go for up to $180 million a pop. Maybe Boeing had more deliveries to France in April than Airbus had to the U.S. Anyway, the vagaries of aircraft deliveries, which are ordered years in advance and wouldn’t be affected by a short-term boycott, could have a lot to do with the numbers.

Good point. I’ll be interested in seeing what other people come up with. I think that the reports of a decline in tourism, however, are pretty solid.

MORE: Tom Maguire isn’t sure about those trade figures, but notes that the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the French are worried about a decline in trade with the United States, especially in light of France’s other economic troubles.