THIS ARTICLE ON AN ECONOMIC DOOMSDAY SCENARIO FOR EUROPE gives some idea of what’s worrying European leaders, and why their strategy has been so anti-American in the mideast:
For Ifri, Europe has two basic problems. The first is its dwindling population. From 2000 to 2050, the institute projects a decline in the EU’s active population from 331 million to 243 million. Over the same period, the active populations of Greater China and South Asia move ahead, while the North American grouping rises from 269 million to 355 million.
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The second involves technological progress and capital accumulation. In these areas, according to the reference scenario, North America “continues to suck in a good part of the world’s savings,” while Europe depends on “savings and domestic investment” for capital. North America remains “the locus of innovative activity,” the projection says, even though Europe will make gains in productivity, cutting the size of its lag behind the leaders.What can Europe do? If things go along as at present, according to the reference scenario, “the decline of Europe is confirmed and the EU with 30 members becomes a second rank economic power.”
But in a more favorable second scenario, Ifri projects the creation of an area of “integrated development” that includes Europe, Russia and the south shore (the Arab countries) of the Mediterranean.
We should respond by opening up immigration. This piece sits interestingly with this piece on the possibility of a U.S. / European Cold War. He puts the odds at around 40%, which seems about right to me. I hope, of course, that this can be avoided, but the article above stresses Europeans’ desire to be a rival to America.