SO IS THE NEW SADDAM VIDEO REAL OR NOT? I’m skeptical. But I hope it’s real, and he’s alive. I want him to be lynched by Iraqis, a la Mussolini, and I want it to be broadcast on Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile H.D. Miller explains how we’ll know for sure that Saddam is dead.

UPDATE: Shaun Kenney emails: “Keep your eye on Saddam’s left arm during the video. It barely moves.”

I haven’t seen the walking-around video. But the still from it on the front page of the Washington Post doesn’t look much like the guy who was giving the speech earlier.

Meanwhile Chris Crofoot sends:

The recent ‘live’ appearance of Saddam Hussein and the reference to the Apache downed by a peasant has a simple explanation, I think. Looking at the Pictures of the downed Apache makes it look like the chopper went down due to mechanical difficulties (it sure didn’t appear to have been damaged much). A pre-arranged story about a heroic peasant downing an Apache is released after the Iraqis get their hands on Apache wreckage (in this case it was nearly intact). A pre-recorded video of Hussein is later released referencing the pre-arranged story about the peasant… ta-daa semi-convincing evidence that Hussein is alive because he’s referencing the peasant story. Is he that devious? Who knows…

Who does know?

ANOTHER UPDATE: Ann Haker emails this observation:

Some people have pointed to the smoke in the background of Saddam’s walking-around video as proof that it was relatively current. But remember what Salam Pax said on March 2:

A week ago on the way to work I saw a huge column of blackest-black smoke coming from the direction of Dorah refinery which is within Baghdad city limits, thought nothing of it really. A couple of weeks earlier to that a fuel tank near the Rasheed army camp exploded and it looked the same, stuff like that happens. My father was driving thru the area later and he said it looked like they were burning excess or wasted oil. Eh, they were never the environmentalists to start with; if they didn’t burn it they would have dumped it in the river or something. The smoke was there for three days the column could be seen from all over Baghdad being dragged in a line across the sky by the winds. During the same time and on the same road I take to work I see two HUGE trenches being dug, it looked like they were going to put some sort of machinery in it, wide enough for a truck to drive thru and would easily take three big trucks.

So, it could have been filmed at the end of February–which would also jive with the warm coats the people are wearing.

Interesting observation. Warm coats? It’s been pretty hot around Baghdad.