JIM MEIGS: Post-pandemic, four-year colleges need to change — or face extinction.
Even before the pandemic, many were questioning whether the four-year college degree is a good deal. Tuition has more than doubled in the past 30 years; Americans now hold a staggering $1.5 trillion in student-loan debt. Economists note that, while a diploma leads to higher earnings for most graduates, many remain “underemployed” even years after graduation. And 40 percent of those who start college never finish.
The cultural respect traditionally paid to elite schools has diminished as well. Outrage erupted when news broke that Harvard and other lavishly funded schools had accepted millions in federal pandemic relief money. (Harvard eventually agreed to return the funds.)
Many current students are angered that their schools refused to offer partial tuition rebates after moving classes online. Some have filed lawsuits.
Meanwhile, no one knows what the coming school year will look like. Some schools might not reopen campuses until late fall or winter. Others could offer a mix of online and classroom instruction. Large lecture classes are probably on hold, as are most sporting events.
Students and families are balking at paying full tuition for such cobbled-together programs. At the University of Chicago, students have organized a “tuition strike,” demanding 50 percent cuts.
According to one survey, 10 percent of previously college-bound high-school seniors are now planning to delay. Some say they no longer plan to attend college at all. Meanwhile, a quarter of current college students say they might not return to their schools in the fall.
A survey of parents showed that roughly half want their children to attend less-expensive schools closer to home.
Analysts estimate fall enrollment could drop as much as 20 percent, adding up to a $45 billion revenue loss. The ratings agency Moody’s recently revised its outlook for higher education from “stable” to “negative.”
All is proceeding as I have foreseen, only faster all of a sudden.