SO FAR, THIS PANDEMIC HAS NOT BEEN A GREAT SHOWING FOR THE EXPERT CLASS: COVID-19 Projection Models Are Proving to Be Unreliable. “As I detailed in the last post, the revised April 5 model was grossly wrong even in predicting conditions that would obtain on April 5 itself. It had predicted that on that day, New York, the epicenter of the crisis, would need about 24,000 hospital beds, including 6,000 ICU beds. In fact, the model was off by a third — New York had 16,479 hospitalized COVID patients, 4,376 that were in ICU.”

Related: USNS Comfort, Javits Center at fraction of capacity during coronavirus crisis.

The Javits Center military hospital in New York is treating 134 patients — despite a capacity of 1,000 beds that is expected to increase to 2,500 to deal with the spreading coronavirus pandemic, the Pentagon said.

The Comfort, docked in the Hudson River with 500 beds and about 1,000 medical workers aboard, currently has 62 patients and has treated 79 to date.

Similarly, the Javits hospital has a medical staff of about 900, mostly from US Army field hospitals.

Part of the reason for the lack of patients is that hospitalizations are down, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.

“If the hospitalization rate keeps decreasing the way it is now, then the system should stabilize over these next couple of weeks, which will minimize the need for overflow on the system that we have built in at Javits and at the USNS Comfort,” Cuomo added.

That’s good news, of course, but it does call into question the information on which these plans were made.