STRATFOR HAS THIS OBSERVATION ABOUT THE D.C. ATTACKS:
The idea that the shooter has some relationship to al Qaeda is not proven by any means, but it is not preposterous either, at least at this point.
The intelligence is that the lives of many people around Washington have been deeply effected by these shootings, and that a subterranean fear now is surfacing, and not entirely irrationally. This points to an interesting phenomenon: So long as it is not demonstrated that al Qaeda is disabled — a difficult thing to demonstrate even if it were true — the American public will, given time and some speculative evidence, construe potentially unrelated criminal actions as being planned attacks by al Qaeda. This gives al Qaeda an interesting and powerful edge in the psychological war it is waging with the United States. Al Qaeda does not have to act to create a sense of terror that transcends the mere lunacy of a serial killer. Over time, this could be a significant tool in its arsenal. . . .
A quiet day, except that if the police do capture or kill the Washington sniper, and he does turn out to be of Middle Eastern origin, the likelihood of an orgy of panic in Washington and the United States is extremely high — and U.S. behavior will become quickly unpredictable at that point.
Hmm. An “orgy of panic?” I’ve been talking to my friends in DC. Some are more scared than others (most typical: it’s ten people out of 2-3 million, so what are the odds?) but it’s hard to see “panic” as the main reaction, except among the excitable media crowd, which has a demonstrated tendency to panic at relatively minor threats to its own safety. And by doing so, the media is doing as much — especially in Stratfor’s analysis — to promote terror as Al Qaeda is.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Several readers have sent me emails along these lines, but this one is the most concise:
Looked at schematically, tactically, the sniper attacks in the areas surrounding Washington, D.C., seem to be intended to draw the attention of law-enforcement away from D.C. itself.
Five will get you ten these guys are Iraqis.
I hope he’s wrong. I fear he may be right. Another reader suggests, for reasons too involved to go into here, that it’s an effort specifically to draw attention away from non-white trucks that might be travelling on I-70. The only encouraging note is that so far the terrorists haven’t shown themselves to be that smart.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader John Beckwith writes:
As a DC resident I disagree completely that there will be an orgy of panic.
The DC sniper will either stop or be caught. If caught, he will either be a lone nut or an islamofascist. Either way people will be relieved not panicked.
If the shooter is an islamofascist, anger and determination will be the most predictable reaction. I suspect that there will be pressure on the police to infiltrate and monitor the radical mosques and emigre communities that harbor such terrorists. Maybe Robert Meuller (and the rest of the top FBI people who just dont get it) will be a bit panicked but the rest of us will be glad that the killer has been caught and profiled so that we can root out any others.
BTW, my guess is that the perp is an islamist duo, though I’ll bet they are freelancing rather than acting on orders from above.
We’ll see, won’t we?