SUMAN PALIT says that I’m way too optimistic in my assessment of the likelihood of Pakistan/India nuclear war.

Well, dang. I hope he’s wrong. I’d say the chance is somewhere between one in ten and one in fifty. I’m hoping for the latter.

Just explain this to me: if you’re Musharraf, what, exactly, makes you think starting a nuclear war is a good idea? Here are some possibilities:

1. “We’ll win! Big time! Thanks to our precision weaponry we’ll destroy India’s ability to hurt us with only minor damage on our end!” If they think that, the Pakistanis may well launch. But thinking that doesn’t just require you to be crazy, it requires you to be utterly, utterly, out of touch with reality. Even by the standards of the region. I don’t think they’re that out of touch. My belief is tempered somewhat, of course, by the knowledge that such military miscalculations are not exactly unheard of.

2. “Well, we’ll be largely obliterated, but it’s better than . . . .” Better than what, exactly? Losing political power in Pakistan? Leaders start wars sometimes to shore up their political positions, but it’s hard to see how a nuclear war could do that.

3. “India’s sure to launch a nuclear strike on us soon, so we might as well strike first with all we’ve got.” At last, a measure of rationality creeps in. I think the first part is unlikely — but it’s not what I think, it’s what Musharraf and his fellow mucky-mucks think that matters, and they might think this way, especially if India gives them reason. This, to me, is the highest-probability scenario for nuclear war.

4. “Who cares if we’re obliterated! We’ll die gloriously in the process of killing many infidels! And it will inspire a worldwide conflagration that, with Allah’s aid, will leave Islam on top of the heap again, just like it was before we all turned suddenly and inexplicably dumb as rocks back in the 14th century!” This is the Ladenite line, but if Musharraf thinks this way (Palit says he does) I haven’t seen much evidence of it. I’ve seen more evidence that Musharraf has Kemalist sympathies and wants to create a union of Turkic peoples under his general leadership. This is rather incompatible with Ladenism, though tactical alliances are of course possible along the way. I don’t know much about the views of other high-level Pakistani military types, though.

So those are the grounds for my wild optimism. Though if this be optimism. . . .

UPDATE: Stratfor reports that the United States is offering increased space cooperation with India in exchange for India standing down a bit. As a short-term move this will probably defuse tensions a bit. As a long term move it builds up India’s technological capability vis-a-vis less-appealing regional powers like Pakistan and China. India doesn’t have precision-weapons capability now. It will in the future, and the technological balance between India and Pakistan (or for that matter, India and China) is only going to favor India more over time.

Hmm. Could that be a reason for Pakistan to strike? Or for China to encourage Pakistan to strike?

Remember. I’m the optimist here.