STRESS TEST: WHAT WOULD A RECESSION LOOK LIKE?
At least since the current president took office, the American political system and the economy have been singing deeply discordant tunes. The political situation looks like it’s teetering on the edge of crisis: Washington is consumed by the politics of scandal and personal destruction; the ruling party is dysfunctional; the outrage-polarization cycle is accelerating; the threat of political violence is unusually acute. The economy, meanwhile, feels stable and secure: Growth is chugging along, the stock market is soaring, the housing market is in high gear, and unemployment has reached historic lows.
But in the Wall Street Journal, Greg Ip reminds us that it’s entirely possible that the economy, too, will plunge into mayhem in the foreseeable future. . . .
A recession today would be like an earthquake rocking a political edifice that is already showing cracks.
Hmm. First, I don’t agree that the center held during the last recession. Second, I do think that we’re overdue, but on the other hand, the recovery we had was so anemic it was barely a recovery at all.