MICHAEL WALSH AT PJ MEDIA’S ELECTION DAY DRUNKBLOG:
Remember: at this point, the national polling margins are unimportant. We’re at the “50 separate elections” stage now. Either candidate can pile up a huge margin in a given state, but every vote past a simple majority is a “wasted” vote, in the Electoral College sense.
But each state doesn’t vote in a vacuum. Western Pennsylvania is closer in spirit to eastern Ohio than it is to Philadelphia. What happens in Michigan can bleed across the Upper Peninsula into Wisconsin and the Minnesote iron range. Arizona and New Mexico co-exist in a strange southwest equilibrium. Over the past several cycles, plucky little New Hampshire has been increasingly squeezed between BenandJerry Vermont and the “Massholes” fleeing their nutty state but bringing their voting habits with them.
In short, watch the dominoes, not the national polls. If they start to fall, we could be looking at a landslide — in either direction.
We’ll know soon. Meanwhile, I’m stone-cold sober, as I’m about to go teach Administrative Law, and teaching about judicial review of Unilateral Administrative Orders under CERCLA isn’t enhanced by alcohol. At least, I don’t think it is. To be fair, I’ve never tried it that way . . .