TYLER O’NEILL: Forget What You’ve Heard: Republicans Have the Demographic Edge for 2016.

Contrary to many media reports, the Hispanic vote won’t necessarily give Democrats the election next year. In fact, a closer study of past elections and current trends shows that the the GOP has a slight advantage going into 2016.

Political outlets have repeated the idea that Democrats have an edge in the Electoral College based on previous election results and the growing number of Hispanics, who have a left-of-center voting pattern. Democrats have won the popular vote in five of the six last presidential elections — but signs show this electoral lead may not continue.

The “inevitable Democrat” hypothesis only makes sense if you consider Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012 a starting point from which the Democratic Party may gain even further. The whole calculation shifts once you factor in the fact that the First Black President can’t run for a third term. . . . Hispanics make a large difference when it comes to the popular vote, but their impact on the Electoral college is minimal.

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